Decision simulator

Before approving something, ask the simulator. It runs counterfactual analysis over your historical decision→outcome pairs and returns a confidence-bounded projection.

Scenario

Model trained on 214 decisions with 96 measured outcomes

“What happens if we delay SULTAN v0.7 by 2 months?”

timeframe: 6 monthsconfidence: high214 similar patterns

Projected outcomes

Revenue impact

MRR at end of Q4

−$36k

Cash flow (Q4)

within safety margin

−$18k

Runway change

still >12 months

−0.4 mo

AI health index

small dip

−4pts

Key drivers

Why the simulator says what it says

Engineering weeks delayed
8
Customer commit slip
2 clients
Feature parity gap
−12%
Team morale
neutral

Historical basis

Prior model-launch delays (n=12) averaged a 3.8% MRR drag and a 0.6-month cash-flow dip. The larger the delay, the worse. Your team has recovered from delays smaller than 6 weeks; a 2-month slip is at the outer edge.

Upside case

10th percentile

Team uses the 2 months to bake in reasoning improvements; v0.7 lands with MMLU 65+, converting 2 prospects who were skeptical of v0.65 quality. Net revenue actually up.

Downside case

10th percentile

Competitor releases a comparable open model; SULTAN's window narrows. −$60k MRR, needs bridge decision on positioning.

Recommendation

Don't delay. Ship v0.7 as-planned; land reasoning improvements in v0.8.